A Monte Carlo engine plays the entire tournament — the group stage, the eight-best-third-placed
cut, and five knockout rounds — tens of thousands of times from the real confirmed draw. The probabilities converge
live as the iterations accrue.
—
Favourite
title probability
0
Simulations
of 20,000
48
Teams
12 groups
32
Advance
top 2 + 8 thirds
104
Matches
11 Jun – 19 Jul
Progress0 / 20,000
LIVE MODE0 of 72 group matches played — pure pre-tournament forecast
Paste real results
Group result — key Group-teamA-teamB (draw-order index 0–3), value [goalsA, goalsB].
Knockout result — key "TeamA|TeamB", value the winner's name. Both condition the forecast.
On 11 June, point LIVE_ENDPOINT at a results feed and it re-conditions automatically.
Championship Odds — Title Probability (%)
Top 20 of 48 by title probability. Hover any bar for reach-final, reach-semi and reach-Round-of-32 odds.
Path to the Knockouts — Qualification %
Probability of reaching the Round of 32 — a top-two finish or a best-third-placed berth.
Section 02 — The Knockouts
The Bracket — The Model’s Most Likely Path
The bracket the model expects: stronger sides advance and real results slot in as games are played. Hit re-simulate to roll one possible random run — upsets and all — which is exactly why the title odds average tens of thousands of them.
Winners are highlighted and carry their score; p denotes a penalty-shootout win.
Knockout Bracket — Round of 32 to Final
Method — Real confirmed draw; Poisson goal model on approximate World-Football-Elo. Knockout
seeding rewards group winners; exact Round-of-32 pairings follow FIFA's published combination table. Illustrative, not a prediction.