A Monte Carlo engine simulates a 538-vote electoral map tens of thousands of times — drawing a
correlated national swing plus state-level noise on each run — to turn margins into win probabilities, an outcome
distribution, and the battlegrounds that decide it. Illustrative synthetic scenario:
generic Indigo and Amber parties, random seed margins — not a forecast of any real election.
—
Forecast Leader
win probability
0
Simulations
of 20,000
538
Electoral Votes
winner-take-all
270
To Win
majority
—
Battlegrounds
states in play
Progress0 / 20,000
Forecast — Win Probability & Electoral Votes
Indigo —Amber —
Indigo electoral votes — median —
0269538
Distribution of Indigo's electoral votes across all simulations. The dashed line is the 270 majority threshold; bars left of it are Amber wins, right are Indigo.
Battlegrounds — Win Probability by State
The most competitive states, sorted by how close the race is. Each bar splits the state's win probability between Indigo and Amber.
Section 02 — Live Count
Election Night — Live
One simulated night, called in real time. States report in poll-close order; as each is called, the
forecast re-runs conditioned on what's known and the live win-probability updates — the same real-time conditioning
that will drive the tournament tracker once matches kick off.
Live Result — Electoral Votes Called
Indigo
0
Live win probability —
Amber
0
Live win probability —
0 of 51 called · 0 of 538 electoral votes reporting · 270 to win
Method — One outcome is drawn as the "truth" of the night; states reveal in poll-close
order. The live probability re-runs 4,000 conditional simulations after every call. Synthetic scenario — not a real election.