The same Monte Carlo engine, a different domain. This runs a regional power-grid adequacy forecast —
sampling generator outages and demand variability across a peak window to estimate the reserve-margin distribution and the
probability of a shortfall. Synthetic fleet; illustrative.
7,800MW
Peak Demand
mean forecast
9,000MW
Firm Capacity
+ ~650 renewables
—
Reserve Margin
median
—
Loss-of-Load
probability
—
Exp. Unserved
mean MW
Simulations0 / 60,000
Supply Stack — Capacity & Forced-Outage Rate
Bar length is nameplate capacity; outage rate is the chance a unit is unavailable in any sim. Wind/solar contribute a variable peak capacity factor.
Reserve-Margin Distribution
−30%reserve margin (available − demand)+50%
—
Loss-of-load probability
—
5th-percentile margin
Method — Each simulation: every generator is available with probability (1 − outage rate); wind and solar draw a peak capacity factor; demand is Gaussian around the forecast peak. A shortfall (negative reserve) is a loss-of-load event. Synthetic, illustrative fleet.
Section 02 — Operations
Live Grid
Trip a unit offline or stress demand and watch adequacy re-compute instantly — the operational view a control
room would drive from a live SCADA feed. Click a generator to trip or restore it.
Generators — click to trip / restore
Demand stress+0%
—
Reserve (median)
—
Loss-of-load
—
Exp. unserved MW
Status
—
Live view runs a fast 8,000-sim Monte Carlo on every change. Illustrative.